Pending Sales Sink Near a 12-Year Low, With Los Angeles Down 16%, Redfin Reports

Pending home sales have fallen to their lowest level since spring 2014, aside from the pandemic freeze in April 2020, according to a Redfin report released Oct. 12. Pending sales fell 4% from a month earlier in September on a seasonally adjusted basis - the biggest monthly drop in more than three years - as mortgage rates rose steadily and passed 7% by the end of the month.

The weakness was national, but the West Coast took the hardest hit. For the first time in three years, pending sales declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros. Seattle posted the largest year-over-year drop at 24.4%, followed by Los Angeles at 16%, San Diego at 15.8% and Anaheim at 15.5%. Redfin noted those Southern California metros are among the priciest in the country, so rising rates hit on-the-fence buyers especially hard. Closed sales also fell 1.6% month over month nationally to their lowest level since the end of 2023.

Supply and cancellations tell the buyer-leverage side of the story. The total number of homes for sale rose 1.2% month over month to its highest level since March 2020, as sellers kept listing while buyers pulled back. And 14.5% of homebuying deals that went under contract in September were canceled - the highest share in Redfin's records outside March and April 2020 - which Redfin linked to buyers having more options and more room to walk away over inspections, payments or a change of mind.

Prices are losing steam rather than falling broadly. The median U.S. sale price rose 1.3% year over year to $393,895 in September, the smallest increase since February, while the median asking price fell 0.5% month over month. About 60.5% of homes that sold went for less than their original asking price, and 19.8% of sellers with active listings dropped their price in September.

For South Bay buyers and sellers, the Los Angeles figure is the local signal: a 16% drop in pending sales does not mean well-priced homes stop selling, but it does mean pricing realistically from the start matters more. Redfin's head of economic research, Chen Zhao, advised sellers to price realistically and consider flexibility such as a rate buydown or covering closing costs, while noting buyers now have more room to negotiate on price, closing costs and repairs.

Source: Redfin via PR Newswire / Morningstar, Oct. 12, 2026 - https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20261012de68323/us-pending-home-sales-sink-near-12-year-low

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