South Bay September: Highest Average Sale Price in 36 Years, but 38.7% of Listings Expired Unsold
September 2026 gave the South Bay and Palos Verdes Peninsula their most expensive September on record. The average sale price for the month was $1,562,554 - the highest September figure in the 36 years of Call Realty agent George Fotion's monthly tape, he reports in his "Trends and Projections to 2028" market recap released this week.
The four headline numbers tell a market of contrasts. There were 1,334 new listings, 770 pending sales, 488 closed sales and 486 expired or cancelled listings in September. The monthly Absorption Coefficient - pending sales divided by new listings - printed at 0.577, a supply-heavy reading that favors buyers. And the share of listings leaving the market without a buyer rose to 38.7%, the sixth consecutive monthly increase - meaning more than a third of sellers who listed in September walked away empty-handed.
Fotion's warning for the winter is about how year-over-year headlines can mislead. Last October through January was the weakest stretch for prices in two years, so even a flat market this winter would print year-over-year gains in the 5% to 17% range. His advice: do not price from those headlines. Sellers who anchor to a positive-sounding annual number and overprice will join the 38.7% that expire; buyers who treat the headline as proof prices are running away will miss that negotiating conditions are actually tilted their way.
The September record also keeps this market's two-speed character in view. Average prices hit an all-time September high at the same time the daily tape keeps showing escrow demand beating new supply day after day - and price cuts concentrating in overpriced listings. The record average is a composition effect as much as a market move: the homes that transact are the ones priced to the data, and the ones that are not priced to the data increasingly do not transact at all.
For South Bay homeowners, the practical read is unchanged from all quarter: the high average price is good news for your equity, but it is not a pricing license. With more than a third of listings expiring and buyers facing 7%+ rates, the sellers who closed were the ones who priced against today's comps, not the 36-year record.
Source: George Fotion / Call Realty, "Palos Verdes Homes & South Bay Real Estate Trends and Projections to 2028" (Sept. 30, 2026) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvyrpnTaml0
Curious what these market shifts mean for your home? Get a free personalized valuation →