Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Up 1.9% Year Over Year in July, Still Losing to Inflation

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the July 2026 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices on Tuesday, September 29. The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.9% annual gain for July, up from a 1.6% rise in June. Note the lag: "July" is a three-month average of May, June and July closing prices, so it reflects contracts signed months earlier.

The headline gain is nominal. July's 3.4% inflation rate ran roughly 1.5 percentage points above the 1.9% home price gain, which means U.S. home values fell in real terms for the 14th consecutive month. "While home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026... slightly lower inflation and stronger nominal home price appreciation helped narrow the gap," said Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The East-West divide persists. Chicago led all metros for the fifth straight month with a 6.9% annual gain, followed by New York (5.8%) and Cleveland (4.2%). Seattle posted the weakest result for the second consecutive month, falling 1.6%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-1.1%). Six of eight Eastern metros improved year over year versus June, compared with just two of eight Western metros.

The 10-City Composite rose 3.4% annually, up from 3.0% in June; the 20-City Composite advanced 2.5%, up from 2.2%. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.3% month over month. One data footnote: Cotality is still dealing with transaction-recording delays in Wayne County, Michigan, so no valid July update of the Detroit index was published in this release.

Source: Calculated Risk summary of the S&P Dow Jones Indices release, Sept. 29, 2026 - https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-a07

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