C.A.R. 2027 Forecast: California Sales Rise 3.7% to 277,900, Median Price Edges to $894,400
California's market is expected to improve modestly next year, not surge. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) 2027 Housing Market Forecast sees existing single-family home sales rising 3.7% to 277,900 units in 2027, up from a projected 268,100 in 2026, according to the forecast release reported Oct. 16. The projected 2026 figure is 1.1% below the 271,100 homes sold in 2025.
Prices are forecast to edge up, not jump. The statewide median price is expected to rise 1.4% to $894,400 in 2027, after a projected 0.8% increase to $882,200 in 2026 from $875,600 in 2025. C.A.R. said a continual shortage of homes for sale will remain a defining factor, supporting prices while limiting how fast overall sales can grow.
Affordability is not forecast to improve. The share of households able to buy a median-priced home is expected to hold at 20% in 2027, the same as projected for 2026, up from 19% in 2025. The forecast puts the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.6% in 2027, the same annual average as in its 2025 and 2026 figures - a reminder that the forecast is an annual average, not a promise about the daily rate, which has recently been in the mid-7s.
C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski said market conditions should move in a more positive direction for buyers and sellers next year, with improved but still limited availability contributing to continued strength in home prices, and that as confidence picks up and mortgage rates ease, more people waiting on the sidelines are expected to make their move in 2027. Chief Economist Jordan Levine added that the mortgage lock-in effect will keep many potential sellers on the sidelines, though inventory should loosen as conditions normalize.
For South Bay owners and buyers, the useful read is planning, not timing: a 2027 market with slightly more sales, slightly higher prices, and affordability stuck at one in five households is a market where preparing early - credit, pre-approval, and a realistic list price - matters more than waiting for a big break in rates or prices.
Source: California Association of Realtors via PR Newswire, C.A.R. releases its 2027 California Housing Market Forecast, Oct. 7, 2026, reported Oct. 16, 2026 - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/car-releases-its-2027-california-housing-market-forecast-302900082.html
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